Bernie Sanders Nomination Odds
February 11, 2016
Now that he’s won New Hampshire by a record margin, more and more people are wondering what Bernie’s odds are of winning the nomination. If you are one of those people, I did some work on the subject about a month ago. Fortunately for me, it’s increasingly relevant.
Democratic Nomination Odds (As of 2-24-20) Bernie Sanders 2/3 Michael Bloomberg 3/1 Pete Buttigieg 9/1 Joe Biden 19/1 Elizabeth Warren 40/1 Amy Klobuchar 66/1. With his big victory in Nevada, Sanders saw his nomination odds improve to better than even money for the first time this campaign. Bernie Sanders’s hopes of sweeping a divided electoral field on Super Tuesday, viewed as a distinct probability only days ago, were dashed as Democratic candidates and voters coalesced around.
Online sportsbook Bovada has released the 2024 Democratic nominee odds with Biden sitting as the +250 favorite. He is followed by Harris at +300, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at +1000, Elizabeth Warren at +1200, Stacey Abrams at +1200, Andrew Cuomo at +1600, Andrew Yang at +1600, Bernie Sanders at +1600 and Pete Buttigieg at +1600 to round out the top 10 on the oddsboard. Bernie Sanders is 1.93 10/11 on the Exchange to be the Democratic nominee for president after he won the Nevada Caucuses on Saturday, taking over 40% of the vote at the current count. Sanders is a political powerhouse according to the polls and the odds. Currently on Bovada, Sanders has +160 odds to win the Democratic Party nomination and +375 odds to become the POTUS. With those odds, a $100 could produce a solid return with lower risk than other candidates.
The short version is this gets very, very real if he wins Nevada. The long version is more fun. Here you go:
Part One shows what he was up against before Iowa and New Hampshire. Read it for historical perspective. Bernie is already well ahead of a couple of his insurgent predecessors.
Bernie Sanders Nomination Odds For Today
Part Two takes you from Iowa through March 1. Skip the first several paragraphs if you must, but the section explaining which state characteristics favor him is important. The March 1 part is fun. Nobody’s really talking about it yet, except to say that Hillary has a firewall.
There are some very red states voting, ones Ted Cruz is counting on. But some Bernie-friendly locations are participating too. Read on to see which states would make the crucial difference.
Bernie Sanders Nomination Odds Presidential
Part Three assumes Bernie survives March 1 close enough in delegates to catch up before the convention. You’ll see very quickly why Hillary has already visited Flint and lobbied to have a debate there.
Part Four begins with New York and ends in California. If you’re willing to suspend any present disbelief, it’s a great ride.
Remember, all of this is contingent on Bernie winning Nevada, or at least making it as confused as Iowa was.