Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination

• Current Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination
• Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination Tracker
• Odds Of Winning The Democratic Nomination
• Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination

Many have been looking ahead to 2020 since the moment Donald Trump took the Oath of Office back in January of 2017. Yet another presidential election is only a year away, which is somewhat hard to believe since the 2016 election still feels fairly fresh.

Plenty of people have entered the race with aspirations of unseating Trump next November. The vast majority of them will fail, of course, but that hasn’t stopped hopefuls from giving it a shot. As many as 2 dozen Democrats jumped into the race at some point, but the field has already whittled itself down to 16.

2020 Democratic Nominee Betting Odds By Ronald Black on March 9, 2019 In July 2020, the Democratic Party will choose a candidate to represent them in the Presidential Election, presumably against the incumbent Donald Trump. At that time, Bovada’s oddsmakers had the former Vice President listed as a –1400 favorite, followed by Hillary Clinton at +1400. Andrew Cuomo and Bernie Sanders were both posted as +2500 underdogs to win the nomination.

Joe Biden's convincing primary win Saturday in South Carolina served to winnow down the field of Democratic presidential contenders, but it also seems to have made a contested convention more likely. Harris has +450 odds (18.2 percent implied probability) to win the 2024 U.S. Election, according to the latest presidential election odds, with Biden just behind her at +550 to win a second term. Having her as the favorite at Bovada may seem like a controversial choice given she is Biden’s vice-president.

While it may seem a bit late with the Iowa Caucuses coming up in early-February, a new name appears primed to join the race. Reports on Thursday afternoon indicated that former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg is ready to run for president. He has reportedly filed the necessary paperwork in order to get on the ballot in Alabama before Friday’s deadline, which is a pretty clear indication of his plans.

What does Bloomberg’s decision mean for the Democratic nomination? Can he actually win? And, can he beat Trump if he does wind up securing the nomination?

Long Shot Betting Odds

Bloomberg has not yet formally announced his plans to join the race, but reports say that announcement could come as early as next week. The 77-year-old has toyed with the idea of running for president several times in the past, but he now seems motivated to actually take the next step.

While he does have plenty of name recognition, Bloomberg is still seen as a long shot by oddsmakers. BetOnline did not even give Bloomberg odds until November 7, when word started to leak that he could be considering a run. The former mayor is now at +800 to win the nomination, which puts him in the same territory as a leading candidate in Bernie Sanders (+800).

Bloomberg actually has far better odds than most of the candidates that have been in the race for months. Here is a complete look at the updated odds to win the Democratic nomination, per BetOnline:

BetOnline has also given Bloomberg +1400 odds to win the general election, which gives him the exact same odds as Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. Warren (+300) and Biden (+800) are the Democratic frontrunners, while Trump (+140) currently paces the field as the lone Republican with betting odds.

Why is Bloomberg Running?

As mentioned, Bloomberg has long considered the idea of running for the White House, but this will be the first time he actually does so. Bloomberg announced back in March that he would not run for presidency, and those in the know say that he made the decision because he believed that former vice president Joe Biden would be too daunting an opponent.

So, Bloomberg’s late decision to run is a pretty clear sign that he and others are worried about Biden’s ability to finish the job. Biden is still listed among the betting favorites (+400 to win the nomination, +800 to win the presidency), but his campaign has not taken off the way many thought it would when he initially decided to run.

Biden is courting moderate Democrats and preaching a message of unity in this age of political divisiveness. He is also pandering to the wing of the Democratic party that fondly remembers the Barack Obama years. He was Obama’s vice president, after all.

Should he enter the race, Bloomberg would try to appeal to the same base of voters that Biden is targeting, which could complicate things. They’re comparable in age (Bloomberg is 77, Biden is 76), but Biden has made headlines over the course of his campaign due to a number of gaffes that have left many wondering whether he is physically and mentally capable of running the country. Those same questions don’t seem to be there for Bloomberg despite the former mayor being a year older.

Those in charge of the Democratic party are also fearful that a more left-leaning candidate like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders would not be able to get mainstream voters on board with their more liberal agendas. Warren and Sanders have been steady challengers to Biden’s frontrunner status, but some insist that voters in the general election are more interested in a centrist candidate.

Bloomberg is essentially running in an attempt to replace Biden as the centrist alternative to the Warren/Sanders wing of the party. South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg has risen in recent polls as a centrist, as well, but he has generated almost zero support among African American voters.

Bloomberg’s Political Track Record

Billionaire businessmen running for president seems to be in vogue these days. Trump obviously succeeded in his first formal run in 2016, while Tom Steyer recently joined the race on the Democratic side. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz infamously considered running earlier this year, but he was essentially laughed out of the race by social media. Andrew Yang may not be a billionaire, but he is another wealthy businessman with no previous political experience.

Unlike the other billionaires, though, Bloomberg actually has quite a bit of political experience under his belt. Being the mayor of a city as massive as New York is no small thing. NYC is home to 8,000 times as many people as South Bend, Indiana, for example.

Bloomberg was in office in New York from January of 2002 until New Year’s Eve of 2013. He actually ran for mayor as a Republican, and he was elected to 3 terms in all. He switched his affiliation to Independent before being elected to his third term in 2009. In 2018, he registered as a Democrat.

Democratic Nomination

Some believe that Bloomberg has the nebulous “electability” that candidates like Warren and Sanders do not. He has name recognition, he has money and he has a political track record. Bloomberg will reportedly fund his own campaign to start, which will make him ineligible for the televised Democratic debates.

Whether Bloomberg is actually more electable than some of the other frontrunners in the field obviously remains to be seen. That said, the fact that he is a well-known commodity at this point makes him an interesting value betting option. He’s certainly more viable than someone like Yang (+1200), who has a strong base of support but seems to be having trouble breaking into the mainstream.

That said, it’s also tough to gauge how a new candidate will fare before they actually begin campaigning. Biden was supposed to take off, but he hasn’t. Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke was seen as a heavyweight when he entered the race, but he flamed out very quickly before eventually dropping out last week. Kamala Harris is another candidate whose campaign has gotten stuck in the mud.

I don’t think Bloomberg would enter the race, especially at this late stage, if he did not think he had a realistic chance of winning. While candidates like Biden and Buttigieg seem to get lost in campaigning on things like unity, I think Bloomberg can actually find some footing in the race if he focuses on common-sense policy ideas with a consistent, coherent message.

Bloomberg at +800 to win the nomination is a very interesting value. I’d bet on that before the odds are able to correct themselves.

Can Bloomberg Beat Trump?

Current Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination

Whichever candidate winds up securing the Democratic nomination will have a tough battle with Trump, who proved to be a formidable foe for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination Tracker

That said, Trump’s approval ratings have been consistently low during his time in office to this point, and the threat of impeachment is currently looming over him. It seems more likely than not at this point that the House of Representatives will vote to impeach Trump sometime before the calendar flips to 2020.

However, the Republican-led Senate seems unlikely to vote to remove the 45th president from office, which would obviously keep him on track to run for re-election next year. Trump is very likely to lead the Republican ticket again in 2020, even if he winds up getting impeached in connection with the ongoing Ukraine scandal.

Polling indicates that most of the current Democratic contenders would beat Trump in a head-to-head election. Polls should be taken with a grain of salt, of course. Clinton consistently crushed Trump in the polls leading up to the 2016 election, and we know how that turned out. Trump will have his base of voters by his side no matter what, and it’s also certain that Russia will try and help Trump win, just like they did last time around.

Frankly, I think any candidate that winds up securing the Democratic nomination is better than a 50-50 bet to win the general election. For that reason, Warren (+300), Biden (+800), Sanders (+1400) and Bloomberg (+1400) are all excellent betting values at this point. It’s really just a matter of deciding which candidate you think has the best chance of actually winning the nomination. Warren has the lead as of now, but we’ll see if Bloomberg’s presence winds up affecting the rest of the field.

Political betting is inherently risky considering things can change in the race on a daily basis. Those that bet on someone like Beto O’Rourke to win the election know that more than anyone. That said, it will be interesting to see how Bloomberg joining the fray will shake up the race on the Democratic side.

Odds Of Winning The Democratic Nomination

Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination